There's A Thin Line Between Genius And Madness. Too Bad Nobody Told Mikey Where It Is.  

Lets get ready to ramble!!!!!!

Over the past month or so I've been making small bets with the other film geekz and friends about what will be the top movie of the summer. 100% across the board every single one of them have given me that dog smelling a fart look at my answers.

So I decided to try and sum it up a bit with some explanations into my long shot theory. Don't get me wrong, this really is just "A Big Ass Las Vegas Style Hail Mary Pray To The Gods Long Shot". Odds are I'm wrong on every single one of these, but last year I called all but one of the top 5 correctly...though I'd played that pretty safe.  This time I'm taking the safety off and shooting from the hip.

Keep in mind I am purposely writing this before I see any of these films (won't be seeing Iron Man until Tuesday), so it's all guess work and personal hopes.

So...lets dive into the madness or bathe in my genius because only time will tell which waters we swim in. (try not to pee in the pool)

Oh I know what you're saying right about now. .This guy is a complete idiot! No way is this movie going to top Indy 4 or The Dark Knight. Ahhh but wait for a moment before you judge this fact. Anyone remember when EVERYONE was sooooo sure The Phantom Menace would blast Titanic's box office record out of the water? It was the grand return of Star Wars to the big screen and people were lined up around the block to be a part of it...NOT even close! It fell about 170 Million short of that goal. Lets be honest I am NOT a fan of Titanic and a HUGE fan of Star Wars and I would have been a little ashamed if Phantom Menace was our #1 Box Office hit of all time.  Also so far as I know there's no line up for Indy 4 a month prior to its release (though I could be wrong..let me call some people in Ohio).

So why Iron Man? Honestly it's partly because I want it to be Iron Man. I love the character and so far it's the only film that has just popped since the first bit of footage. Every trailer is stunning, every clip looks thrilling and fun, and the video game has potential. Some of that is meaningless of course..or is it?

What was the # 1 movie last year? Yup Spider-Man 3 another super-hero movie. It was clearly the lesser of the three Spider-Man films and yet it took top dog in a year with not only Transformers but a third POTC movie and Shrek 3.

What drove Spider-Man 3 to #1?
First: It was the third film in what had already been a phenomenal string of hits for the Spider-Man.

Second: It was promoted to DEATH you couldn't turn on a TV or surf the internet without running into this thing you weren't even safe at Burger King. And yes the game based on the movie was a big ass hit as well.  

Third the trailers KICKED ASS!

Lets compare this set up for Iron Man:

String of hits...not so much since it's the first Iron Man film but Jon has had some serious home runs and he's aiming for the fences again. But where Spider-Man 3 couldn't be killed by bad word of mouth Iron could certainly soar with good word of mouth. So far the movie has good reviews, and looks fantastic.

Promotion: Oh you bet! Car company tie ins, ads galore, more TV spots than you could fit in that warehouse at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, toys in the store, toys at Burger King, Iron Man slurpee heads at 7/11 and yes a video game that looks bad ass.

Kick ass trailer: Best trailer of the year so far. Since the first glimpse the film sites have been grabbing at any Iron Man bits they can get their hands on.

Overall I think Iron Man has the potential to rise up over the others simple because I think it'll be a good movie and fun to watch and word of mouth will keep those Iron legs pumping at the box office. It might be a long shot but either way it looks like Paramount is going to have a great summer.

         #2 Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull

Now everyone is assuming that Indiana Jones? return to the big screen is going to make huge bank and be the hit of the summer. I'll grant you that it will be a big hit, but Indy is far less beloved by fans as Star Wars was prior to the prequels. An entire generation of film goers have been raised without an Indy movie hitting the big screen, and to them it's just an old dude in a hat spelunking around with Shia Labouf...mind you I think Shia is going to be a nice chunk of the overall take...brilliant casting choice to get the "tweens" and "nearly cougars" into the theater.

So far the trailers for this new outing of Jones haven't really done much for me, sure it evokes a high level of nostalgia for half of it before diving into what should be one ass kicking trailer...but it comes off like he yelling "I'm too old for this shit" through out.  I'm sure it will be good but lets face it the odds of walking out of this thing feeling let down are pretty damn high after the prequel trilogy.

Mind you prequels aside I'm trying to keep in mind that this is a Sir Stevie project and not just Toy Boy Lucas so it's hard not to hope for a better visit with an old friend. Perhaps a new trailer showing off more of the actual feel of the movie would make it pop more for me..unless "I'm too old for this shit" and "Hey look it's that kid from Transformers" is the tone they are going for.  Either way like I said Paramount is going to have a great summer.

 

I'll have to do some research but I'm guessing Hancock will be the first top five movie of the year with the word cock in it. The movie looks great but there is a history of movies featuring not so super hero's bombing big time..but if anyone can make this genre bullet proof it'd be Will Smith.

#4 Wall ? E

Pixar has yet to create flop. Nine movies and counting and not a foul stinker in the bunch. I had some doubts they could pull off a nascar movie, but clearly they could make a CGI movie of Chris Walken reading the diary of Anne Frank and it'd be a hit
.
The fact that Wall - E has little to no actual dialog doesn't worry me a bit. The movie looks like a great character piece that will let the tiny noises and motion fill the void and tell the story.

  

The Rest Quick Picks -
#6 Narina: Prince Caspian
#7 Kung Fu Panda
# 8 The Incredible Hulk
#9 Speed Racer
#10 Tropic Thunder

As much as I'd like to see Hellboy II and the X-Files crack the top ten it's just not likely to happen. Though I do think Hellboy II will make more than the original.  

It'll be interesting to come back to this article in a few months, and to see just how far wrong I am. But that's part of the fun and I have no shame in it.  To be honest as I wrote my reasons for the top two films I started to have doubts about them and nearly switched them but I'm going to go with my first instinct and see how it plays out.

Feel free to post any predictions you may have below.

 

Readers have left 11 comments.

No.1  Movie predictions

I think you are off but you know that already... Your predictions might be off too. :)

Guest User () • 2008-04-25 00:49:29

No.2  predict

dark knight making less than the 1st ur crazy it will make atleast 50 to 70 million more

Guest User () • 2008-04-27 14:12:17

No.3  Contest Coordinator

My family has had a contest for years predicting the summer movie box office. I think Speed Racer looks like crap. I will have Wanted on my list, and I'm curious why more people don't have it. Our contest runs from Memorial Day weekend to Labor Day weekend, so Iron Man has no shot. I am still torn about which to put in the number one slot... Hancock or Indy 4. I think Dark Night will take the third slot.

Audree () • 2008-04-27 16:36:43

No.4  the dark knight

I think that batman will be the movie of the summer if not the year making at least 300 million domestically especially if it has a PG-13 rating followed by indiana jones in a close second at 280 million followed by iron man at 250 million

Guest User () • 2008-04-30 16:48:51

No.5  Dark Knight mistakes

have you seen the hype for the dark knight? you and entertainment weekly have low balled probably the best superhero film ever made, and certainly from a literary and intellectual perspective the dark knight blows the competition away

Guest User () • 2008-05-08 21:02:55

No.6  Dark Knight box office

'dark knight making less than batman begins' is the kind of thing even Joker wouldn't say....300 is a lock.

Abhishek () • 2008-05-23 02:18:41

No.7  batman sucks

u know what i think u have done pretty well in ur predictions cause soo far iron man is number 1 and indy 4 is number 2 and narnia is 4th and alot of big movies havnt come out yet so i hav to hand it to ya good predictions. there will be a fight between hancock and wally and although will smith is a hell of a contender dont underestamate kids at the box office. and 4 every1 dat luvs batman u suck i didnt even like batman begins i thought it was a snore fest the dark night will make a lil more than begins but def won\\\'t make top 5 i see it being about 7

Guest User () • 2008-06-05 22:42:47

No.8  Not As Far Off As I Thought

So Far:
USA:
Iron Man - $289M
Indy 4 - $253M

Worldwide:
Iron Man - 533.6
Indy 4 - 523.6

In all honesty much closer than I expected. It really was just a long shot.

Now if only they could throw Iron Man into an Imax Release before the Summers out...hmm.

mikey_dayspring (Super Administrator) • 2008-06-12 01:05:59

No.9  HOTTUB

THOSE PREDICTIONS ARE OFF, THE DARK KNIGHT IS GOING TO TAKE OVER THE BOX OFFICE THIS YEAR, EST 85-90 MILLION OPENING WEEK AND WELL OVER 300 MILLION WORLDWIDE

Guest User () • 2008-06-15 21:07:47

No.10  Dark Knight

Wall-E might rake in that much cash but no way the Dark Knight pulls that off.

Robin () • 2008-06-19 00:39:33

No.11  155mil

Holy Cash Cow Batman!

When I wrote this piece, I knew it was a long shot. But more than that I was trying not to get my hopes up about Dark Knight.

Oh sure I wanted it to be great, but hearing how many people were in it got me wondering if it was just going to be a huge mess. Scarecrow, Joker, Two Face..all in one film? Dear lord I was just praying for no pop out bat ice-skates.

I figured I'd like the movie, Begins was prety damn good. but walking out of the screening I was floored by just how good this was and I knew beyond any doubt this should trump all box office this summer...unless the gods are just that cruel.

So as much as I loved Iron Man and still do I think even the people in that movie are bowing in respect for the fine works of The Dark Knight.

shouldn't be long before it's the top flick of the year. Its a movie that deserves it for once.

Joker () • 2008-07-20 21:21:50

Please keep your comments brief and on topic, and remember that this is not a discussion thread.
Name :		Title :
	Text ColorAquaBlackBlueFuchsiaGrayGreenLimeMaroonNavyOlivePurpleRedSilverTealWhiteYellow
Comment(s) :	[quote=Guest User]u know what i think u have done pretty well in ur predictions cause soo far iron man is number 1 and indy 4 is number 2 and narnia is 4th and alot of big movies havnt come out yet so i hav to hand it to ya good predictions. there will be a fight between hancock and wally and although will smith is a hell of a contender dont underestamate kids at the box office. and 4 every1 dat luvs batman u suck i didnt even like batman begins i thought it was a snore fest the dark night will make a lil more than begins but def won\\\'t make top 5 i see it being about 7[/quote]
Verify :		What color is often used to describe the sky ?

---